Abstract-In order to cut down the accidentrate in hazardous materials transportation, three aspects are discussed in thispaper: human factors, material factors and environmental factors. Then, anindexing system and integrated assessment model are established based on fuzzymathematics and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Each assessment value ofhuman-materials-environment factors can be calculated by utilizing the model.Furthermore, a 3-dimension frame model was presented to perform early warningaccording to 4 different risk ranks. At last, a case study has been done bythis paper and shows that the assessing results of various factors, which havebeen described in this indexing system, are in accord with realistic conditionsof the enterprise. This research results can be employed by correlativeenterprises to take predictive control measures effectively, and they are also significantto the departments of transportation security and supervision.
Keywords-Risk assessment, Hazardous materialstransportation, Fuzzy AHP, Assessmentindexing system, Early warning.
1、Introduction
In recent years, the amount of the hazardous materialstransportation grows rapidly with the economic development in the world, andthe emergenciescaused by hazardousmaterials transportation happen frequently [1]. The U.S. Department of Transportation [2], forexample, estimated that there were at least approximately 3.2 billion tonshazardous materials transported each year, and forecasts a 2% annual growth inthe amount of hazardous materials produced in the country [3]. The vast transportations of hazardous materials createa substantial potential for accidents. In 1998, there were roughly 15,000incidents related to hazardous materials transportation in the United States,429 of these were classified as “serious incidents” [2,4]; arecent survey in Europe covering the time span1926–1997 revealed reports of 3222 accidents involving hazardous chemicals, ofwhich 54% are fixed installations, 41%are transportation accidents and 5% miscellaneous accidents [5];the number of hazardousmaterials accidents in Japan had been increasing and reached a record high inthe year 2000. Over 10,000 accidents had been reported by local fire stationscountry-wide to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA) of Japan [6]; the volume oftransportation accidents of various hazardous materials are increasing steadily in Chian.It's calculated that there aremore than 200 million tons of hazardous materials transported by road in China every year[8]. The accident rate went to 40.7% in all kinds of transport accidents in 2006 [9].At present, Chinese government has distinguished the hazardous materials transportation accidents as sort of disaster, which is one of national four categories unexpected public events.
