Abstract:This paper is based on VAR Model, using theimpulse response function and forecasting Variance decomposition to depict the relationshipof modern logistics and economic growth. The result shows that there ispositive correlation between our country’s modern logistics and economicgrowth. Thus,accelerating the development of modern logistics is the important pathchosen to promote sustained economic growth.
Keywords:Logistics; VAR Model; Theimpulse response function; Variance decomposition
1 Introduction
With the development of the logistics industry, the attitude of thelogistics for the "third profit source" has basically reached aconsensus, a common theory that the development of logistics can promoteeconomic development, which is "now the logistics of economic developmentaccelerator," Vice Premier Wu Bangguo said that China's logistics industryis "an important industry for the national economy and a new economicgrowth point." In 2000 the World Bank research report "China :development of the services industry and China's economiccompetitiveness," the results show that in China there are four servicesectors which are of great significance to enhance productivity and promoteChina's economic growth, they are logistics services, business services,e-commerce and telecommunications services. Among them, logistics services isthe largest one, with the world economy and the sustainable development ofscientific and technological advances, modern logistics as a modern economy and animportant part of the process of industrialization, the most economicallyrational model of integrated services, being a global scale can developrapidly. While economic development is for the logistics industry with thedevelopment of its good economic conditions and market environment, thelogistics industry will not only protect the smooth, but boosting thedevelopment of the logistics industry.Around the relationship of modern logistics andeconomic development, domestic scholars engaged in a useful exploration andresearch. Many scholars and experts use qualitative analysis to analyze theirrelationship. In "Regional economic development and logistics"(2002), , Beijing University Economics, professor Zhang Wenjie ,analyzes therelation of regional economic and logistic with regional economic theory andtransaction discussed theoretical, and comes out :
