Abstract：Along development of economic,supply chain has become a complex system. In this paper, a Swarm simulationplatform, as one of the scientific and dynamic research methods for complexsystem, is applied to establish a supply chain model and determine its abundantbullwhip effect phenomenon under different operational conditions. Based on analysisof different conditions obtained in the paper, it is envisaged that enterprisedecision makers can control the bullwhip effect and make appropriate strategy toimprove economic benefits of the supply chain.

Keywords: bullwhipeffect; swarm; modeling; simulation

Introduction

In the 21 century competition between enterprises andenterprises is substituted by Supply Chain and supply chain. Supply chain is thesupply network involving suppliers, manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and consumersin the process of production. With globalization and the development ofinformation technology, the supply chain system is a complex system. In thiscomplex supply chain system and the production and distribution process, thereare various forms of uncertainty. For example, suppliers of raw materials,machinery and equipment operation, production output, transport and consumerdemand are all uncertain.Among these uncertainties, the uncertainty of customers demand is the mostfundamental one^[1,2].  

Bullwhipeffect is the distorted and fluctuated information caused by customer demand, referringto the orders placed by the retailer to the supplier which have inconsistencewith the actual sales. Specifically variance of the orders sent to the vendorsis greater than ones received from the buyer (that is Demand-Distorting). Suchdistortions in the supply chain are gradually magnified to the upstream. It isa serious impact on modern logistics, supply chain operations and the economic efficiencyof the supply chain system. There is conclusion from lots of practical studythat eliminating the bullwhip effect on the supply chain would get 10% to 30% increaseof profits^[3,4].