Abstract—In order to investigate the global financial crisis’s impact onlogistics industry quantitatively, this paper selects 10 logistics listedcompanies respectively from China and US stock market as samples, calculatesthe default distances of the companies based on KMV model which is firstproposed by US KMV company, analyzes the trend of credit risk change from thethird quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009. The results show thefinancial crisis has a severe impact on the credit risk of logistics companiesand KMV model is an effective tool for measuring the credit risk of logisticscompanies. Furthermore, on average, the trend of credit risk of logisticscompanies does not coincide with the Gross Domestic Product’s respond to thefinancial crisis in time completely. The trend of credit risk during the crisisbetween
Keywords-logistics management; riskmanagement; financial crisis; KMV model; credit risk
1. Introduction
Theglobal financial crisis, which really started to show its severe effects fromthe last quarter of 2008, has hit the whole world for more than one year. Itcaused widespread business contraction or bankruptcy, collapse of stock market,increases in unemployment, and shrinking international trade, and even a globalrecession. Although recent data indicate the global economy has reached bottomand began to recover, for the most countries, unemployment is still rising.Many economies may need several years to come out of the recession completely.
Due to the significant decline in demandand revenue all over the world, a lot of enterprises and even few nations areexperiencing the challenges of liquidity. For many enterprises, creditworsening and default have happened because of the liquidity problem. But itwill be more helpful if we reveal in quantitative way that how the financialcrisis works on different sectors, how it influences the enterprise’s credit,and how the enterprises respond.