王杨，鲁晓春
（北京交通大学经济管理学院，北京 100044）
摘 要：城市配送需求点和车辆行驶路径具有很大不确定性，用常规的解析方法较难分析城市配送对交通的影响。本文提出了一种多Agent仿真模型，模拟车辆自主选择最优路径的配送过程，统计车辆随机通过各个道路节点的频次，研究城市配送对道路交通的影响。运用该模型，本文研究了京津冀协同发展的战略下，物流中心外迁前后城市配送对北京市内交通的影响。仿真结果显示，在当前受城市配送影响最大的道路节点有：大羊坊桥、分钟寺桥、十八里店桥、玉泉营桥。如果北京市物流中心外迁至涿州、固安、武清、香河、三河等地，城市配送将会对远通桥、朝通桥、分钟寺桥、四惠桥交通产生较大影响。城市配送对北京市交通影响主要集中在东部、南部区域，其交通影响与配送需求点分布无明显联系。借助仿真模型的灵敏度分析，可以分析物流中心对道路节点交通影响的灵敏度，采用这种方法，本文得到了灵敏度较高的道路节点，这为降低城市配送对道路节点交通影响提供了调节依据。
关键词：京津冀协同发展；城市配送；北京市交通；多Agent仿真
By Simulation to Study City Distribution Impact on Beijing Municipal Transportation Under Considering Coordination Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
Wang Yang，Lu Xiaochun
（School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China）
Abstract: Under the influence of coordination development strategy for Beijing-Tianjing-Hebei，Some logistics centers of Beijing will move to around cities. A lot of people want to know the impact of city distribution impact on municipal transportation after this development strategy is applied. As distribution vehicles’ routes are uncertain, it is difficult to study this issue by normal mathematic approach. In order to deal this issue, the agent simulation model about distribution process under current logistics centers layout is built in this paper. The data about the layout of business districts, large scale hospitals and E-commercial distribution terminals are input in simulation model. By analyzing simulation result, it shows that under current circumstance, these road nodes are influenced by city distribution most obviously: Dayangfang Bridge, Fenzhongsi Bridge, Shibalidian Bridge, Yuquanying Bridge. In the future, if logistics centers are moved to Zhuozhou, Guan, Wuqing, Xianghe, Sanhe, some nodes will be influenced mostly, such as: Yuantong Bridge, Chaotong Brideg, Fenzhongsi Bridge, Sihui Bridge. In a word, city distribution impacts Beijing municipal traffic on eastern and southern roads. Comparatively speaking，western are and northern area roads are less impacted by distribution vehicles. City distribution influence on municipal traffic only concerns with the location of logistics center. It has rare relation to customers’ allocation, or to physical distribution mode. In order to avoid city distribution impaction, overlap on traffic, logistics centers had better not to converge in one direction, especially in the direction of Jinghu highway.
Key words: Coordination Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; city distribution; Beijing municipal transportation; multi-agent simulation